The Threat of Terrorist Use of WMD - Prepared by Andra Stoller
INTRODUCTION
 

Why is the US at risk for a terrorist attack?
- US involvement in Iraq  - US support of Israel  - US involvement and influence in the Middle East
- US troops in Afghanistan  - We are considered infidels
Who or what are the primary targets?
- Large population centers  - Soft targets i.e. malls, amusement parks, sports arenas, businesses, schools, and churches  - Symbolic buildings or locations  - High profile people
Is the Tampa Bay area a target? Why?
- Mac Dill AFB o SOCOM - Global Response on Terrorism Role  o CENTCOM - Chairing the Summer Camp in the Middle East  - Tourist attractions = high population
How could this affect us?
- Terrorists are going for the BIG impact and mass casualties  - We are no longer innocent bystanders, we are now part of the "enemy"
 

TERRORISM
 

Definition of Terrorism:
The DoD defines terrorism as "…the calculated use of unlawful violence or threat of unlawful violence to inculcate fear; intended to coerce or to intimidate governments or societies in the pursuit of goals that are generally political, religious, or ideological."
- Non-State Supported: A terrorist group that operates autonomously, receiving no significant support from any government.
- State Supported: A terrorist group that generally operates independently, but receives support from one or more governments. Support may include training, sanctuaries, supplies, intelligence, and direct financial aid.
- State Directed: These terrorist groups operate as an agent of the government. They receive intelligence, logistics, and operational support from the government. Nations accused of sponsoring terrorism are stigmatized by placement each April on a State Department list. The list contains the same terrorist sponsors since its inception in 1979: Iran, Sudan, Libya, North Korea, Cuba, Iraq, and Syria.
Source: Air Intelligence Agency Antiterrorism Handbook, 6 Jan 03
 

Traditional vs. Modern Terrorism
 

- Traditional Terrorism  o Purpose was for political gain and to send a message; clear political objectives
o Produce just enough bloodshed to get attention for their cause  o Use guns and explosives
o Examples
§ Munich Olympics - At 4:30AM on September 5, 1972, five Arab terrorists wearing track suits climbed the six and 1/2 foot fence surrounding the Olympic Village in Munich, Germany. Once inside, they were met by three others who had gained entrance with credentials. Within 24 hours, 11 Israelis, five terrorists, and a German policeman were dead. At 9:30AM, the terrorists announced that they were Palestinian Arabs, and demanded that Israel release 234 Arab prisoners in Israeli jails and Germany release two German terrorist leaders imprisoned in Frankfurt. They also demanded their own safe passage out of Germany. After hours of negotiations, a deal was struck with German authorities and a trip to the NATO air base at Firstenfeldbruck, by bus and then two helicopters was arranged, in order to board a plane for Cairo. German sharpshooters were standing by with orders to simultaneously kill all the terrorists without harming the hostages. The rescue plan failed and a bloody firefight between the Germans and Palestinians followed, ending at 3:00AM when the Palestinians set off a grenade in one helicopter, killing all aboard, and terrorists in the second helicopter shot to death the remaining, blindfolded Israeli hostages. Three of the Palestinian Arabs terrorists were captured alive and held in Germany. On October 29, a Lufthansa jet was hijacked by Palestinian terrorists who demanded that the Munich killers be released. The Germans capitulated and the imprisoned terrorists were freed.
Who were the Munich terrorists? The Munich operation was ordered by Yasser Arafat and carried out by Fatah, Arafat's faction of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO).
The Fatah terrorists called themselves Black September in order to safeguard Fatah's international image and the PLO's political interests. Although Salah Khalaf (aka Abu Iyad) officially headed the organization, Black September refrained from publishing official statements, and its leaders kept their identity hidden. Abu Iyad's book, Stateless, explains that Black September was closely tied to Fatah. Abu Iyad frequently refers to his personal involvement in the organization and drops transparent hints to this effect:
- Black September was not a terrorist organization, but was rather an auxiliary unit of the resistance movement, at a time when the latter was unable to fully realize its military and political potential. The members of the organization always denied any ties between their organization and Fatah or the PLO. I myself am personally acquainted with many of them, and can state with conviction that most of them belong to various Fedayeen organizations.
§ Pan Am Flight downed over Lockerbie, Scotland - Pan Am Flight 103 exploded over Lockerbie, Scotland on December 21, 1988, killing all 259 on board and 11 on the ground
§ TWA high jacking - Mugniyah is under indictment in the United States in the 1985 TWA hijacking in Beirut
 

Modern Terrorism
 

o Purpose is extremist causes  o Little respect for life  o Goal is to kill as many as possible  o Use guns, explosives, and now WMD o Groups most dangerous to the US tend to have these characteristics
§ They operate in the US as well as abroad  § Their funding and logistical networks cross boarders, are less dependent on state sponsors, and are harder to disrupt with economic sanctions  § They make use of widely available technologies to communicate quickly and securely
§ Their objectives are more deadly
o Examples
§ Khobar Towers  § 1993 WTC bombing  § Embassies in Africa - 1998  § Tokyo Subway attack - The nerve gas Sarin was released in commuter trains on three different Tokyo subway lines by a terrorist cult group. Sarin was concealed in lunch boxes and soft-drink containers and placed on subway train floors. It was released as terrorists punctured the containers with umbrellas before leaving the trains. The incident was timed to coincide with rush hour, when trains were packed with commuters. Over 5,500 were injured in the attack. A subway station close to SLIH was one of several sites hit simultaneously in the attack; therefore, many of the victims were sent to SLIH
§ Sep 11, 2001 attacks
Will terrorists use WMD in future attacks? Is it really probable?  What types of WMD could be used? What is WMD?  How will it be employed?
What would happen if a terrorist used a WMD weapons on MacDill AFB? How broad would the effects be?
 

WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION
 

Definition of WMD:
A "Weapon of Mass Destruction" is defined as: Any destructive device that is intended or has the capability, to cause death or serious bodily injury to a large number of people through the release, dissemination or impact of:
(a) toxic or poisonous chemicals or their precursors;
(b) disease-causing organisms;
(c) radiation or radioactivity; or
(d) conventional explosives
sufficient for widespread lethality.
Source: DTRA-AR-40H, Weapons of Mass Destruction Handbook, 1 Sep 01
 

CBRNE - Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear, and High Explosives
 

Chemical weapons
- Types of agents
o Blood - prevents oxygen transfer from blood to body tissue; very rapid acting; inhalation hazard; very non-persistent
o Blister - blisters skin, damages eyes and lungs; most extremely persistent; delayed reaction; inhalation and skin hazard
o Nerve - causes convulsions, paralysis, death; rapid acting
o Choking - damages lungs; causes swelling, lungs fill with fluid; inhalation hazard; non-persistent
- Ease of getting precursors - ref to WMD Terms Handbook
- Difficulties
o Weaponization - droplet size, dissemination, not burning it off in an explosion  o Environment - buildings, trees, atmosphere, weather, wind, sun  § Urban environment  · Buildings will protect some from direct spray
· Must consider wind in between buildings  · Agents tend to stay in low areas like basements, sewers, and subways
· Agents will soak into porous surfaces and become vapor hazard  · Covert operations ideal for urban environment
§ Ideal conditions for employment of chemical weapons  · clear/partly clear nights with less than 30% cloud cover
· early mornings until 1 hour after sunrise with winds less than 5 knots  § Ideal conditions for employment of biological weapons  · Heavy overcast days or nights  · 1 hour before sunset and 1 hour after sunrise when cloud cover is greater than 30%  · wind speed greater than 5 knots  · rain or snow
Bio - to be discussed next month
 

Radiation weapons
 

- Radiation dispersal device (RDD) or dirty bomb (combined with conventional explosives)
- Material possibly acquired from nuclear plants, medical supplies, smoke detectors, natural sources
- Hazard when inhaled or exposed depends on time, shielding, and type of source
o Alpha particles - very large; only go short distance in air; inhalation hazard
o Beta particles - smaller; stopped by clothing; can cause burning on skin
o Gamma rays and x-rays - tiny; stopped by very dense materials or shielding; exposure hazard
- Example - Chechens put radioactive canister in Russian park for a period of time (didn't anyone see this as unusual?)
 

Nuclear
 

- Very difficult to develop and employ  - Damage would be massive if nuclear explosion occurred
o 1 kt = ~500 times the strength of OKC bombing  - Probability of terrorist use high if acquired, BUT still question as to whether it would work as intended or fissile out  - Weapon acquired from nation state  o High concern regarding North Korea, Iran, Iraq, and FSU
 

High Explosives
 

- Historically weapon of choice used by terrorist groups  - Still likely to be used  - Many Al Qaida training tapes give instructions to produce explosives from readily available materials  - Many precursors are dual-use and available at local stores (refer to WMD Terms Handbook)  o Potassium chlorate and aluminum powder could be used to create an IED, and these two components are key ingredients for many homemade explosive recipes in Al Qaeda terrorist manuals-
§ Aluminum powder has limited common uses outside of customizing paint mixes
§ Potassium chlorate is a controlled pyrotechnic
§ Ref: United States: Middle-Eastern Male Attempts to Purchase Potassium Chlorate and Aluminum Powder, 22Mar 02
What terrorist organizations are in the US?  Isn't Al Qaida hurt by our attacks in Afghanistan?  Are there any terrorist organizations in Tampa?
…Stay tuned for the next presentations for more information!!!
Refer to: Are You Ready? A Guide to Citizen Preparedness, www.fema.gov/areyouready/
Also see www.ready.gov or call 1-800-BEREADY
 

Suggestions from the Air Intelligence Agency Antiterrorism Handbook:
 

1. Overcome routines
a. Vary your route to and from work, and the time you arrive and leave.
b. Exercise on a varying schedule, utilizing different routes and distances. It is best not to exercise alone.
c. Avoid routines for shopping, lunch, etc. Routines are easy to follow. Be particularly sensitive to the possibility of surveillance.
d. Do not divulge family or personal information to strangers. Use discretion in revealing personal plans during conversations.
e. Enter and exit buildings through different doors, if possible.
2. Be sensitive to, and changes in, the security atmosphere
a. Be alert for surveillance attempts or suspicious persons or activities and report them to the proper authorities
b. Do not unnecessarily divulge your home address, phone number, or family information
3. Be prepared for unexpected events
a. Get into the habit of "checking in" to let friends and family know where you are or when to expect you
b. Know what to do in emergencies. Always carry "telephone change" or a phone card
c. Set up simple signal systems that can alert members or associates that there is danger. Only share this information with people involved in your signal system.
d. Carry identification showing your blood type and any special medical conditions. When asked for identification, give only the information requested. Never surrender your entire wallet or purse or leave your wallet or purse unattended
e. Avoid shortcuts when walking. Walk only on well lighted, heavily traveled streets. If, while walking, you are threatened by the occupants of a car, run in the opposite direction of that which the car is traveling to seek help. If approached by a suspicious looking person on foot, cross the street or change direction.
f. Avoid street level rooms and stairwells. When checking into hotels, attempt to avoid taking a street-level room. In buildings, use elevators rather than risk attacks in stairwells. Stand near the elevator control panel; if threatened, push the alarm button.
g. Never leave keys in coat pockets. If keys to your residence are lost, have locks changed.
4. Special precautions for women
a. When shopping: Never leave your purse unattended in a shopping cart or on a counter. Don't flash large amounts of money. Check credit cards periodically; immediately report any loss. Maintain a record of all account numbers and address of the companies to permit a quick reporting of lost cards, thus limiting liability. After making large purchases, check to see if you are being followed in or after leaving the store.
b. When driving: Look inside before getting in your car - an assailant may be waiting for you. Keep your car's gas tank full. Keep windows rolled up and doors locked. Park in a well-lighted area near your destination. If followed, blow your horn repeatedly to attract attention and drive directly to a safe location. If the car breaks down, raise the hood and remain inside with the doors locked and windows rolled up until the police arrive. Ask anyone who offers help to cal the police. Don't pick up hitchhikers. At night drive only on well lighted streets if at all possible, even if it means going out of your way.
c. When in an office building: If working, keep your purse locked in desk or file cabinet. When working late, notify the building security officer before leaving the office so he/she will know when to expect you in the lobby. Report suspicious persons or actions in your building to the security officer or supervisor.
d. If attacked: Scream as loud as you can. Strike back fast…and aim for the vital spots; gouge eyes with thumbs, scratch with fingernails; scratch across the face with a key or fingernail file; bash temple, nose or Adam's apple with any object possible; jab knee into groin; stomp down on instep - kick shins; grab fingers and bend back sharply; and poke umbrella, comb, fist, or elbow into midriff. Report the incident as soon as possible. Try to give a good description of an attacker to include color of hair and eyes, build, scars or tattoos, height, weight, and complexion. It is important that you report all incidents - failure to report may result in an attack on another person.
Surveillance Indicators:
The following is a list of indicators personnel should be knowledgeable of to assist in detecting terrorist surveillance in high-risk areas. This list is not inclusive and intended more as a guide for personnel not trained in surveillance activities.
- Illegally parked vehicles  - Occupied parked vehicles  - Vehicles that move with you  - Vehicles that pass then abruptly park
- Erratic driving  - Vehicles slowly maneuvering through traffic and intersections  - Flashing headlights between vehicles
- Peddlers/vendors only stopping at one house
Reporting criteria:
Note the following information when gathering information to report:
- Vehicle's license plate, make, model, and color  - Physical description of occupants  - Contents of vehicle  - Items carried by personnel

 

STAY SAFE AND GOD BLESS AMERICA!
SUPPORT OUR TROOPS!